Weekly Market Activity Report

The week ending March 19 showed a 16.6 percent decline in Pending Sales from the same week last year and a 36.9 percent decline in New Listings.

With a little imagination, spring is in the air. Buyer activity has been gradually on the rise for most of 2011 as prospective buyers seem to prefer sporadic puddles to insurmountable snowbanks. Compared to last year's incentive market, however, the year-over-year declines in purchase activity have been growing as well.

The number of Active Listings for Sale has remained remarkably stable thus far in 2011. In 2010, inventory levels had fluctuated by more than 6,000 units from the first of the year. That volatility has been tamped down below 1,000 units so far this year. With no additional purchase incentive in the pipeline, this should bring supply-side improvements and price stability as demand returns to historically reasonable levels.

Monthly Skinny: March 2011

Here's the latest Skinny on the Twin Cities Real Estate Market. While the news isn't the best, the numbers don't totally reflect the current market, due to last year's tax credit. Still an interesting clip to watch.

Suze Orman vs Warren Buffet: Whose Real Estate Advice Shoul You Follow?

So are you a Suze fan or a Warren fan???  I vote for Warren's Sound Advice.  Check out this article I just ran across on Trulia.

You know Suze Orman - she delivers hardcore financial gut checks to everyday Americans on a regular basis. In her latest book, The Money Class, she also recently delivered a pretty striking declaration: that the American Dream - which, for many, includes home ownership and upward economic mobility - is as dead as a doornail. To back this up, she points to huge numbers of jobless and what she sees as the near impossibility of getting credit these days.

But you might also have heard of Warren Buffett. He just so happens to be the third richest human being on the planet. In Buffett's most recent letter to his company's shareholders, he, too, made a striking declaration of his feelings about owning a home: "[h]ome ownership makes sense for most Americans, particularly at today’s lower prices and bargain interest rates." And the Oracle of Omaha didn't stop there - he literally raved about home ownership, saying that "the third best investment I ever made was the purchase of my home." Now, that's a big statement from a guy whose investment decisions have earned him a net worth over $50 billion!

Suze says the American financial dream is dead. But Buffett says buy, and buy now. Who's right? (And who's wrong?!)

Orman is right that one extreme version of the American Dream is dead. But not the traditional American Dream of owning an affordable home that appreciates over time. That basic premise of the value of homeownership is valid. But it may be valid for a smaller segment than ever before. Orman believes that renters should save, save, save up every penny and they may never be a candidate to own a home.

Buffett believes now is the time to purchase as affordability has never been better. Buffet wins here; he's right that a home is a very strong investment, with abundant yields, both financial and emotional. And according to our latest survey, the American Dream of homeownership lives on in the hearts of the 72 percent of Americans who say owning the place they live is a part of their personal American Dream.

How can you make sure your exercise in owning a home is set up to be like Buffett's 3rd best investment (#s 1 and 2 were wedding rings, btw), rather than Orman's image of the American nightmare? Here are 3 basic steps Buffett urges every American who owns a home - or wants to - to include in their approach to home ownership.

1. Ditch your "dream home" for a practical pad. When it comes to homes and mortgages, bigger is not always better. What is better is to buy a home that makes sense for your family's future and its finances. In Buffettt's own words, "a house can be a nightmare if the buyer’s eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender . . . facilitates his fantasy." Instead of buying dream homes, Buffett went on, the goal should be to buy a home you can afford.

2. When you buy, plan to hold. Warren Buffett is worth $50 billion, and he still lives in the home he bought 52 years ago - for $31,500. Many Americans got caught in the housing crash when they took on mortgages they could only sustain for a short period of time, then weren't able to refinance as expected. Buffett's stock investing advice has long been to avoid making investments you can't hold for at least 10 years. Likewise, buying a home should be done with a long-term plan to avoid catastrophe when home values fluctuate in the short term.

3. Mortgages should have fixed, affordable payments. In his shareholder letter, Buffett points out that a housing company he holds has done vastly better than other real estate and mortgage industry players and attributes their success to the fact that "our approach was simply to get a meaningful down-payment and gear fixed monthly payments to a sensible percentage of income." Buffett believes these two mortgage musts are the key to avoiding foreclosure, opining that "[i]f home buyers throughout the country had behaved like our buyers, America would not have had the crisis that it did. . .. This policy kept [the company] solvent and also kept buyers in their homes."

Unless you are one of those rare buyers who know their income will increase by a predictable amount at a predictable point in time, like a lawyer prepping for partnership, a good rule of thumb is to stick with a fixed mortgage payment (including taxes and insurance) that's under 30 percent of your take home income.

By Tara-Nicholle Nelson
Broker in San Francisco, CA

Weekly Market Activity Report
For the week ending March 5, there were 717 signed purchase agreements, a decline of 11.4 percent from a year ago when the market was stimulated by the federal home-buyer tax credit. Over the last three months, there have been almost 900 fewer signed purchase agreements than during the same period a year prior.
On the supply side, sellers brought 1,845 new homes onto the market, or 19.0 percent fewer than the same week last year. The three-month average pace of listing activity was 16.6 percent slower than it was a year ago.

Despite the decline in supply, there are a few other metrics that indicate challenging conditions remain for sellers. The Average Days on Market Until Sale currently sits at 157, up 16.1 percent from a year ago. Similarly, the Percent of Original List Price Received is down to 88.2 from last year's mark of 93.2.

In essence, in an environment where it takes homes longer to sell, sellers should be focused on proper pricing and preparation if they want a faster sale. Although there are fewer new listings, smart pricing and marketing are more important than ever.

Weekly Market Activity Report
For the week ending February 26, home purchase activity in the Twin Cities diverged further away from last year's tax-credit-inspired market. There were 606 purchase agreements signed during the week, which made for a 30.2 percent decline from year-ago levels. On average, over the past three months, Twin Citizens made a less-distorted 9.5 percent fewer home purchases than they did during the same three-month period in 2010.

On the supply side, sellers brought 1,238 new homes onto the market, or 27.8 percent fewer than the same week last year. The three-month average pace of listing activity was 16.1 percent slower than it was last year.

Both the 2011 and 2010 inventory levels have begun to climb at this time of year, which is normal. Sellers were more likely to list their home at this time last year knowing that credit-motivated buyers were more determined to purchase. It seems as though sellers wanted to ensure their property appeared in preliminary MLS queries while buyers continued to shop around for the best value up until the deadline.

6 Big Time HomeBuyer TurnOffs

Here's some interesting tips for Sellers from Trulia.com.  These are real issues in the marketplace, so Sellers read through these tips. You'll be glad you did

We've talked about surprising home features buyers LOVE, and about why buyers aren't biting on today's market, despite it being highly affordable. But we haven't talked much about the characteristics of sellers, listings and homes that turn buyers all the way off. Well, not until now!  Here are 6 big-time homebuyer turn-offs that make buyers cringe at the thought of your home, and action steps you can take to prevent your home from being an offender:

1. Stalker-ish sellers. I know you think you’re being helpful, walking the buyer through your home and pointing out the wagon-wheel light fixture you made with your own two hands, the custom mural of a stingray you paid top dollar to have painted across your living room wall and the way the sounds of happy schoolchildren running across the front yard of your corner lot to get to the school in the next block lifts your spirits. However, the buyers might be trying really hard to ignore, minimize or figure out how to undo the very features of your home you hold dear. They also may want or need to have personal space and conversations with their mate or their agent while they’re viewing your home - you being there, especially walking right alongside them while they’re in your home, prevents them from being comfortable about doing this, or discussing all the things they would change if the home were theirs. In my experience, the more nitpicky a buyer gets about a house and the more detailed their list of things they would change, the more serious they are about considering making an offer on this place.
What’s a Seller to do?  Back off. Let your home be shown vacant, or leave the house when people come to see it. If you need to be there, at least walk outside or go sit at the coffee shop down the way while prospective buyers view your home. If the buyers have questions, their people will contact your people.

2. Shabby, dirty, crowded and/or smelly houses. You already know this one. Yet, buyers constantly marvel. The buyers who come to see your home are making the decision whether to choose your home for the biggest purchase they’ve ever made during the worst economic conditions most of them have ever experienced. Your job is to get your home noticed – favorably – above the sea of other homes on the market, many of which are priced very, very low.
What’s a Seller to do? Other than listing your home at a competitive price, the only tool within your control for differentiating your home from all the foreclosures and short sales is to show it in tip-top shape. Pre-pack your place up, getting rid of as many of your personal effects as possible. Do not show it without it being completely cleaned up: no laundry or dishes piled up, countertops freshly washed, smelly dogs (I have a couple who smell on occasion – no judgment – but don’t show your house with pet odors) or litter boxes cleaned and/or out of the house.

3. Irrational seller expectations (i.e., overpricing). Buying a house on today’s market is hard work! On top of all the research and analysis about the market and situating their own lives to be sure they’ll be able to afford the place for 5, 7, 10 years - or longer, buyers have to work overtime to separate the real estate wheat from the chaff, get educated about short sales and foreclosures and often put in many, many offers before they get even a single one accepted. The last thing they want to add to their task lists is trying to argue a seller out of unreasonable expectations or pricing. And, in fact, there are so many other homes on the market, buyers don’t have to do this. When they see a home whose seller is clearly clueless about their home’s value and has priced it sky-high, most often they won’t bother even looking at it. If they love it, they’ll wait for it to sit on the market for awhile, hoping the market will “educate you” into desperation, priming the pump for a later, lowball offer.
What’s a Seller to do?  Get real. Get out there and look at the other properties that are for sale in your area and price range. Get multiple agents’ take on what your home should be listed at, and don’t take it personally if their recommendation is low. If your home has much less curb appeal or space or is much less upgraded than the house across the way, don’t list it at the same price and expect it to sell. If you owe more than your home is realistically worth, you may need to reexamine whether you really want or need to sell, or consider a short sale, if you simply have to sell. Don’t be tempted into testing your market with an obviously too-high price, unless you’re prepared to have your home lag on the market and get lowball offers.

4. Feeling misled. Here’s the deal. You will never trick someone into buying your home. If the listing pics are photo-edited within an inch of their lives, or your home is described as an “approved” short sale when, in fact, the bank approved another offer, now withdrawn, but will require a new offer to go through any sort of approval process (even a truncated one), buyers will learn this information at some point. If your neighborhood is described as funky and vibrant, as code for the fact that your house is under the train tracks and you live in between a wrecking yard and a biker bar, prospects will figure this out. If the detailed information about your home, neighborhood or even transactional position (e.g., short sale status, seller financing, etc.) is misrepresented, the sheer misrepresentation will turn otherwise interested buyers off. If you authorize your agent to “verbally approve” the buyer’s offer, don’t go back the next day demanding an extra $5,000. In cases where the buyer feels misled, whether or not that was your intention, running through the buyer’s mind is this question: If they can’t trust you to be honest about this, how can they trust you to be honest about everything else?
What’s a Seller to do? Buyers rely on sellers to be upfront and honest – so be both. If your home has features or aspects that are often perceived negatively, your home’s listing probably shouldn’t lead with them (like the ad I recently saw with the intro line: “this place is a mess!”), but neither should you go out of your way to slant or skew or spin the facts which will be obvious to anyone who visits your home. Make sure you know what the listing of your home reads like, before it’s published to the web, and that a prospective buyer will not feel misled by it.

5. New, ugly home improvements. Many a buyer has walked into a house that has clearly been remodeled and upgraded in anticipation of the sale, only to have their heart sink with the further realization that the brand-spanking-new kitchen features a countertop made, not of Carerra marble, but brand-new, pink tiles with a kitty cat in the middle of each one (I saw this once, people – no joke). Or the pristine, just-installed floors feature carpet in a creamy shade of blue – the buyer’s least favorite color. New home improvements that run totally counter to a buyer’s aesthetics are a big turn-off, because in today’s era of Conspicuous Frugality, buyers just can’t cotton to ripping out expensive, brand new, perfectly functioning things just on the basis of style – especially since they’ll feel like they paid for these things in the price of the home.
What’s a Seller to do? Check in with a local broker or agent before you make a big investment in a pre-sale remodel. They can give you a reality check about the likely return on your investment, and help you prioritize about which projects to do (or not). Instead of spending $40,000 on a new, less-than-attractive kitchen, they might encourage you to update appliances, have the cabinets painted and spend a few grand on your curb appeal. Many times, they will also help you do the work of selecting neutral finishes that will work for the largest possible range of buyer tastes.

6. CRAZY listing photos (or no photos at all). Here at Trulia, we’ve seen listing photos that have dumpsters parked in front of the house, piles of laundry all over the “hardwood” floors touted in the listing description, and once, even the family dog doing his or her business in the lovely green front yard. Listing pictures that have put your home in anything but its best, accurate light are a very quick way to ensure that you turn off a huge number of buyers from even coming to see your house! The only bigger buyer turn-off than these bizarre listing pics are listings that have no photos at all; most buyers on today’s market see a listing with no pictures and click right on past it, without giving the place a second glance.
What's a Seller to do? Check your home’s listing on the sites it's posted on and make sure that the pics represent your home well. If not, ask your agent to grab some new shots and get them online (and say pretty please, pretty please!).
P.S. - Buyers, get your roof inspection or new linens paid for! Sellers, how'd you like to be able to hire a cleaning service for that pre-showing deep clean?